Are you less likely to have the following happen than the average driver:

• Scrape the side of your car or bang your side view mirror at the drive-thru?
• Lose control of your vehicle while driving at a high speed?
• Bump another car while pulling into or out of a parking spot?
• Get in an accident because you failed to yield to the right of way?

You probably think so. College students (with 3+ years of driving experience) overwhelmingly believe themselves to be better than average drivers, regardless of gender. And the self-confidence goes up with the experience.

But how can this be that we are all better than average?

It can’t be. But our own lens of how we view risk is biased…called Optimism Bias.

This phenomenon shows up in so many aspects of our personal and professional careers.

• Driving.
• Our health and the decisions we make.
• Our selling skills.
• Our careers.

Back in 2012 at ExactTarget, one of our investors/board members addressed the entire 300+ member sales team. We prided ourselves as a world-class sales team. But, according to him, he said that as a whole, we were all average. I mean…the larger the sample size, the closer to average we must be, right?

Let’s think about that idea in terms of our careers. Things tend to work out best when we’re prepared for the what if.

Three months ago, I wrote about the idea that the pendulum of business always swings. Throughout history, economic disruptions make the swings more dramatic. We’re experiencing a period where voluntary turnover is high, because the availability of jobs is so much higher than the demand. This high is higher following the economic disruption that is Covid.

The pendulum has always swung the other way. A spike in inflation always precedes it. Investment goes down. Belts tighten. Next thing you know, the demand for sellers matches the supply. In the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s all the way to even the 2000s, a boom is followed by a bust. Layoffs occur, and suddenly the supply of salespeople exceeds the demand.

While I do pride myself as a sales historian, I am no economist. I may be wrong here…it’s entirely possible!

However, think about the phrase “law of averages”.

If true, should we be preparing for a downturn? Should we be recession-proofing our careers? Should we be investing in ourselves right now – our skills and our network? As leaders, should we be refining our focus, and the focus of our teams?

Would you and/or what you’re selling do well in a downturn?

Those who do best in a downturn are those who are prepared for a downturn. It doesn’t mean we turn all ships the other direction. But a few simple steps can help us prepared:

• Are we prioritizing our efforts on targets that tend to do well when things constrict?
• Is my company prepared? As my friend Doug Landis from Emergence Capital told me this week, they are advising all of their portfolio companies to be ready with 18-24 months of cash. Is yours?
• For you, personally, are you building your skills to be the “above average”? If and when things constrict, companies tend to upskill. Are you an “upskill”? You could be. Do more than the average, and be more than the average.

“Gradually, then suddenly” – Ernest Hemmingway.

We heard about Covid in February of 2020. In early March, basketball games began to cancel, then the NCAA tournament, then baseball – and all of a sudden, we’re all in line for toilet paper.

We have an optimism bias – about ourselves, our surroundings, and that what today looks like will continue indefinitely. However, the signs are there.

Again, this isn’t a doomsday post – but the time is now to prepare for what, at the very least, will be a slowdown.

Make a plan. Be prepared.

Todd Caponi is the author of the 3x best-book-award-winning and international best-seller, The Transparency Sale and a speaker & workshop leader as Principal of Sales Melon LLC. Todd is also a multi-time C-Level sales leader, a behavioral science and sales history nerd, and has guided two companies to successful exits. His next book, The Transparent Sales Leader, is planned for July 5th, 2022.

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