Fixing Your Sales Forecast

I want you to begin reading this with a moment of zen…clear your mind of all you know about forecasting. Clear your mind about your sales stages. Clear your mind about your sales process.

Breathe in. Breathe out.

Now, ask yourself this question:

To predict when a buyer might actually make a purchase, would it be better to focus my attention on what the buyer is thinking and doing, or would it be better to focus my attention on what the seller has done and is doing?

Have the answer in your head?

Maybe I’m crazy, but I’m thinking that predicting when a buyer might buy is best done by focusing our attention on buyer behavior, right?

Now, let’s bring ourselves back to the present time…reality. How are you currently managing your forecast?

Is your sales process and sales stages all focused on seller activity? I’m willing to bet that for the overwhelming majority of you, the answer is YES. I just did a simple Google image search “Sales Forecast Methods”. The first images that come up with sales forecast stages on them? What do you see here? Let’s just look at the first image to begin with (WordPress doesn’t make images easy to read…so I’ll read it for you). The stages read as follows:

• Initial Call: an activity the salesperson has completed
• Qualified: an activity the salesperson has completed
• Product Demo: an activity the salesperson has completed
• Trial: an activity the salesperson has gotten the buyer to do
• Final Call: an activity the salesperson has completed

The other images are all very similar, with sales stages based entirely on seller milestones like assess, pursue, propose, negotiate, etc.

No wonder our forecasts are all messed up! Our focus is entirely on our own milestones, not recognizing buyer purchase journey milestones!

I’ve dedicated an entire chapter in the book, The Transparent Sales Leader, to how to make this shift. It’s also a workshop I teach for revenue leaders as a part of my overall revenue leadership program. But here’s the jist of both…

Do you recall the 1992 movie Glengarry Glen Ross? In it, Blake (played by Alec Baldwin), the verbally abusive sales trainer from the headquarters of Mitch & Murray, comes in to “motivate” the struggling sales team. Using a chalkboard, he has two primary acronyms – ABC (Always Be Closing) and A-I-D-A.

“A-I-D-A. Attention, Interest, Decision, Action. Attention — do I have your attention? Interest — are you interested? I know you are, ’cause it’s f–k or walk. You close, or you hit the bricks! Decision — have you made your decision, for Christ?! And action. A-I-D-A. Get out there! You got the prospects coming in; you think they came in to get outta the rain? A guy don’t walk on the lot lest he wants to buy. They’re sitting out there waiting to give you their money! Are you gonna take it? Are you man enough to take it?”

Aside from the fact that this rant is awful (here’s the link to the video…but get your ear-muffs ready), horrifically old school and after watching this video it makes the average adult want to go take a shower afterward, the AIDA speech is (for the most part)…right!

Elias St. Elmo Lewis (pictured) was the first known theorist back in 1898 that every buyer goes through four stages during a potential purchase. They will first pay Attention, which then leads to Interest. That interest turns to Desire (not “decision” as Blake charts out above), then finally they take Action.

Every writer on sales conceded to this fact. Magazines and books all outlined the process in the exact same way, including classic 100+-year-old sales literature like:
Salesmanship Magazines from 1905-1909
Norris Brisco’s book, Fundamentals of Salesmanship in 1916
Arthur Dunn’s book, Scientific Selling and Advertising from 1919
Norval Hawkin’s book, The Selling Process in 1920

In 1924, Elmer Ellsworth Ferris talked about AIDA in his book, Salesmanship, by saying,

AIDA Chart from Elmer Ellsworth Ferris’s book, Salesmanship

“All writers on salesmanship concede that in every sale, the mind of the customer will pass through four different stages…” (figure 1 below)

AIDA was a systemic focus by sellers and sales organizations on recognizing buyer states and buyer behavior. Progress through a buying journey, and all the endorphins that go along with it, was based on salespeople understanding and empathizing with these four stages, and driving their messaging and positioning accordingly. Their forecasts were based on matching up those four stages against the recognition of where buyers were along their AIDA path.

Forecasting when a buyer might buy, and for how much, based on what the buyer is doing…

…NOT what the seller is doing.

Think about the selling world today. Is anyone using AIDA in their stages and processes? Probably not. At least I haven’t seen it. Every CRM system from Salesforce to Hubspot to Pipeliner comes, out of the box, with seller-activity-focused sales stages – the assembly line of deal progression.

I’m not advocating for us all going back to an AIDA world, but there’s an even simpler place to start.

All buyers, including yourself when you’re buying something, go through a three “why” journey: a “Why Change?”, “Why You?” and “Why Now?” process.

Why Change? Why You? Why Now?

Why Change?: Has the buyer recognized the need to do something different tomorrow than they are doing today? How have they communicated/shown that?

Why You?: Has the buyer decided that our solution is the correct path forward to make that change? How have they communicated/shown that?

Why Now?: Is the buyer engaged in making this change now? How have they shown that? Are they engaged in a firm negotiation and contract process?

Now, you may be thinking…”Oh, crap, I have to change all my stages? Do I have to change all of my dashboards and reports? Do I have to retrain everyone?”

While you can overhaul everything – and I can teach/show you how, it doesn’t have to be that hard to make simple shifts that will instantly (a) tune your team to recognizing buyer behavior, and (b) make your forecast more accurate.

A Simple Place To Start

The simple way? Overlay the three “Whys” over your current stages.

A simple layering of these questions across the top of your sales stages.

• Your “Qualification” and “Discovery” stages? Yes, your salespeople are doing those activities, but through the lens of “Why Change?”, right? The deals in those stages should be based on the idea that the prospect is exploring with you whether change is warranted. You don’t move on until the prospect has indicated through their words and actions that change is necessary / their status quo is unsustainable.
• Your “Demo” and “Proposal” stages? Those should be through the lens of “Why You?” The deals in those stages, and the purpose of delivering a demo or a proposal should be through the lens of determining whether your solution is the right path for change…not the driver of needing to change itself. You don’t move on until the prospect has indicated that they’ve selected you.
• And your “negotiation” associated stages? That’s about “Why now?” Are they engaged in reviewing the final details around the investment, journey, terms and conditions? Have they indicated in their words and actions that this is a priority to get completed? If the answer is yes on all counts, then what comes next is a ClosedWon deal.

Teach your leaders to inspect deals based on recognizing buyer behavior, NOT recognizing seller behavior. Instead of “Oh, you sent a proposal? Great! That deal is at 50%!” it’s now, “Why did we send a proposal? If I were to ask the client what happens next, what would they say? Would the prospect feel like the proposal is the right solution, in the right price range, with the ability to implement it, and they are the right person to make it happen?” Do this with every stage.

What is the buyer doing? What is the buyer saying? That is the first shift to becoming truly buyer centric, while also fixing your forecast!

Call me if you want more help on this…it can be a big, quick win!

---

I speak and teach revenue organizations on how to leverage transparency and decision science to maximize their revenue capacity. It’s what I do…teach sellers, their leaders, and really entire revenue organizations how we as human beings make decisions, then how to use that knowledge for good (not evil) in their messaging (informal and formal), negotiations, and revenue leadership. I wrote a 3x award-winning book (𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 𝘚𝘢𝘭𝘦), and have a newish book out (𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘚𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘓𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘳) now that just won its first award!

Reach out if you want to discuss The Transparency Sale sales methodology, or really…anything else (sales kickoffs, workshops, keynotes, the economy, history, etc.)! Email info@toddcaponi.com or call 847-999-0420.

Sign up for the newsletter for more of my nonsense in your inbox every other week, with some sales history sprinkled on top…Sign Up – The Transparent Newsletter